Monday, February 15, 2010

Don’t blink over crude oil



There are currents of motion underneath the ocean that can power Ghana . The power is in crude oil and gas. As a result, all roads are and will for the next two decades or so, lead to the twin city of Sekondi/Takoradi.

Ghana’s standing and image for the present and the near future will be tied to crude oil. Gold attracted strangers to our shores once upon a time; they nicknamed our land the Gold Coast and we are forever tied to gold as a natural resource even if we might not have much to show for it. If in doubt, visit the gold producing parts of the country! Poverty and brokenness and signs of plundering painfully stare at those parts of the country in the face. Whenever I visit gold mining towns, I view these parts as victims of unscrupulous and merciless gang rape.

We are excited that very soon, most probably before the end of this year, our own crude oil will start flowing. The mighty Atlantic Ocean is gifting us liquid black gold which lies far underneath its waters. Whose responsibility is it to manage our expectations about the upcoming heaven by way of crude oil? Fact: oil can intrude into paradise. Corruption, mismanagement, under-management and like vices can get in the way of our oil paradise!

The year 2010 is our Year of Grace – the year God is to smile on Ghana , saying, “My beloved children, you’ve been in a tight corner for too long. Crude oil is my precious gift to you. If you mess up this opportunity, you’ll be in a more wretched state than you are now.” So Ghana could unravel if we mismanage the gift of oil? Yes, for sure. The lives of our estimated 25 million people, plus the other millions yet unborn will lean on the edge of survival.

As we get high on expectations, let’s glean some wisdom from an Aesop fable. Aesop was an ancient Greek slave who was freed from slavery because of his wit, charm, style and sophistication in story telling abilities. Aesop fables go back more than 2,000 years. Very much like our own Kweku Ananse stories, witty sayings like “Look before you leap” and “Necessity is the mother of invention” are attributed to Aesop.

One such witty fable is entitled, The Milk-Woman and her pail. It goes: “A farmer’s daughter was carrying her pail of milk from the field to the farmhouse when she fell a-musing. ‘The money for which this milk will be sold, will buy at least three hundred eggs. The eggs, allowing for all mishaps, will produce two hundred and fifty chickens. The chickens will become ready for the market when poultry will fetch the highest price, so that by the end of the year, I shall have money enough from my share to buy a new gown. In this dress, I will go to the Christmas parties where all the young fellows will propose to me, but I will toss my head and refuse every one of them.

At that moment of day dreaming of all the things she would do with her new found wealth, she tossed her head in unison with her thoughts and hmmm! …. down fell the milk-pail to the ground and all her imaginary schemes perished in a moment.” Ouch! Gasp for breath!

With that spill, the Milk-Woman had no milk to sell to buy three hundred eggs to be hatched for chickens. So therefore there was no poultry to be sold for money to be made to buy the beautiful gown of her dreams to wear to the Christmas party. If our dreamy Milk-Woman could not attend the party, dreams of seducing some fellows of the opposite sex could not happen. What a naughty ultimate goal for gaining wealth! Not edifying but admittedly pleasant.

All it took was one reckless move; just a careless toss of the head in a dreamy state crushed her grandiose dreams. Mishaps do happen. Planning, care, and all the good intentions can still go wrong. Specifically, Murphy’s Law states that “if anything can go wrong, it will”. With a healthy sense of pessimism laced with optimism, the question asked here is: Who is responsible for managing our high expectations about Ghana ’s near-future status as a commercial crude oil producer nation? Even Ghanaians abroad are catching the expectation fever. “ Ghana has struck oil! Things are about to change for the better. So let’s return home!”

I wonder how the Milk-Woman felt after the spill and the crush of her dreams. What did her father say to her? “You reckless girl! You couldn’t carry the milk well, but went playing until you’ve lost it all.”

If expectations about how crude oil will change our lives and help us accomplish what currently appears impossible – to become a middle-income country – are not managed well, we could become like the Milk-Woman. Emotions will be varied: anger, disappointment, light-headedness, flapping-jaws, rolling-eyes, nausea and drooling mouths might be the least explosive emotions from sea to shinning sea.

Fact: the crude oil will not last forever. It is estimated that with oil from the Jubilee Fields, 2011 will be the first full year of production after the initial production toward the end of this year. It is expected that 2012 to 2015 will be the peak period of production with about 120,000 barrels a day. Production level is expected to taper off about 2029 with about 50,000 barrels per day. So the high excitement about crude might last for just about twenty years. Such a short time span! No big deal.

Considering that just a fraction of the proceeds will come to Ghana because investors put in their money to go under the ocean to suck the oil, so unless there’s a sizeable oil discovery in the near future, we might not really consolidate a whole lot of money to change our national circumstances.

So therefore we should pray harder for more and more oil to be discovered so we can have enough to bathe in, enough for wastage through corruption and plain theft, enough for developing Ghana’s infrastructure, enough for improving the overall human condition of the majority of our desperately poor people, and maybe – just maybe, have enough to leave something ‘small’ behind for generations yet unborn. God is!

There is something about crude oil that can potentially bring out the worst in people. Greed can suck in even good well-intentioned folks. And with the extent of endemic corruption in our national psyche, there is no way of knowing the extent to which those who can have access to our oil wealth would be tempted to dig in for self and significant others. So we must all shine our eyes about our crude oil. Whatever you do, don’t toss your head in careless anticipation. Don’t blink if you know that our major national fault-line is corruption at high, middle and even at annoyingly low-level places.

Oil management must necessarily include managing our expectations or else some of us would go kuku, weighed down heavily by vain imaginings. That won’t be healthy or funny!

2 comments:

TheMerchant said...

Hmmmm!this is typical hmmmm,food for thought,wisdom for the not so wish,words for us all.
Wow!this story of 'Aesop Fable' is really the of kind story the elders of my Land needs, so to cause them to put their feet on the ground.A story of such(Aesop Fable) is so profounding that its long lasting lessons alone, I regret to say, can instil some 'warnings' and 'senses' into the so-called leaders of my land.I am just okay for the day having such story.
Atleast,it will help in shaping me bluntly and sincerely in my political life.My only fear is that,will most of my colleagues who are totally hostile to reading have a feel of such profounding text?-I will do my best by spreading the news.And more importantly,I would have wished this text could serve as a piece of an advice from my woman Doctor to the elders of my motherland.I decided not to comment on the oil issue,but this topic" Don't blink over crude Oil," has really gingered me.Thanks to you Dr.Doris Dartey.I have a say.

TheMerchant said...

After reading over the article published by Dr.Doris Dartey,I found it most interesting that, indeed people do have worries over our newly-found cake.Hastening to add a voice, I pray and wish the investors do not come and 'move' our 'cheese'.(Crdt to the Author of who move my cheese).My say is pending till...