Thursday, January 20, 2011

Thoughts from a Middle Income Dream Factory

I’m yet to recover from the bold pronouncement by the Government’s Statistician, Dr Grace Bediako, on the dawn of November 2010 that Ghana my beloved mother/fatherland has become a middle income country. She flaunted some figures to prove her assertion. As they say, ‘book no lie’; and by extension, statistics should also not lie. But book can lie, and statistics can lie too – big time.

You, dear reader, might also be floating in the surprise of the sudden change of Ghana’s status as economy classifications go. I was away in our West African neighbourhood of Liberia when the smart lady made that big pronouncement. So I missed the news.

On my return, by sheer coincidence, I overheard someone say in passing, ‘Now that Ghana is a middle income country…..’ I exclaimed, ‘What!!!’ He responded, ‘Oh, it’s true. Ghana is now a middle income country.’ I asked, ‘When did this happen?’ ‘How do we know for sure?’ I was left dazed. I looked around me and realised that nothing had changed in my absence. I went to bed that day very confused, with deep suspicion that this announcement will fail the dinner table test.

Enters Dr Alexander Appiah Koranteng:

In my effort to resolve my confusion owing to my vast knowledge gaps about such matters, I sought for wisdom from a big name in governance and public management reforms. He’s Dr Appiah Koranteng, the National Coordinator of the erstwhile National Institutional Renewal Program (NIRP). He has extensive experience working for the World Bank and major international institutions. For the past four years, he has worked on reform projects in post-war Liberia and is currently on a reform assignment in southern Sudan – what is soon to become Africa’s newest country. Following is a summary of his remarks.

‘Categorization of country incomes is done by the Bretton Woods institutions for their own lending purposes but member countries have come to accept the three broad classifications of low, middle and high income economies. Countries with per capita income of below $996 are considered as low income. Ghana’s per capita income used to hover around $600, putting us firmly in a low income economy status.

‘Countries in low income economies aspire to move up in classification, to the middle income. Ghana has been on a journey to move up since independence. In the 1970s, Ghana had a negative growth rate, the result of long durations of political instability. However, since the 1980s, Ghana has successfully struggled to come out of the difficult economic times.’

I asked Dr Appiah Koranteng: ‘What should the eyes see in a middle income economy.’ He listed several markers. According to him, ‘energy, water, telecommunications, roads and other basic infrastructure should be fantastically developed. Such developments will support the progressive growth of the private sector in an unprecedented manner. Ghana’s competitiveness on the international market should also be guaranteed.’

He is concerned about (1) the low level of industrialization for which reason big economies like China dump goods on us, (2) the less than five per cent degree of integration of Ghana into the global economy, and (3) the low rate of ICT adoption.

He acknowledges that the real estate sector is booming. Plans to improve the energy sector at Aboadzi and Bui, and current crude oil production, hold promise to solve our energy problems. The banking system, the capital market and the ease of doing business in Ghana have also improved considerably. With such improvements, investors will come and Ghana would someday, truly become a middle income economy. According to him, since countries like Malaysia and India are middle income economies, Ghana should work much harder to compete globally.

He questioned the level of transparency in the release of figures that form the basis of pronouncing Ghana as a middle income economy. He said, ‘It’s important for us to ask fundamental questions. For instance, what are the computations from the education sector that justify it as belonging to a middle income economy? Does the rate of enrolment in schools, the quality of infrastructure or the contributions of education to GDP warrant pronouncing Ghana as a middle income economy? In the health sector, does the patient-doctor ratio fit into the picture of a middle income economy?’

‘Ghana has not prioritized agriculture although it employs over 50 per cent of the population. There is wastage of our human resources because very little is being utilized for the growth and development of our country.’

Most importantly, according to Dr Appiah Koranteng, instead of mere political rhetoric, the leadership of the country must carry the people along if Ghanaians are to share in the experience of living in a middle income country.

My thoughts:

The news about Ghana becoming a middle income economy is laughable. Economic classification is not like some opium that you take and feel high, and pretend that all is well. Forget about the statistics. Dr Grace Bediako, na statistics we go chop?

Just take a cursory look around and classify what you see into worlds. I’ve always suspected that since the international ‘donor’ organizations classified the worlds and put us into the low third, they have done a re-classification that put some of us into 4th and 5th worlds and intentionally decided not to disclose it to us. So now when tweaked statistics suggest that we’ve arrived in middle income, I want to think hard about the assertion and walk away to eat my kenkey and fish.

Consider the state of mental health care in Ghana. Go mental and see! You would walk the streets and back-roads of Ghana in tattered clothes and die by a choked gutter with no one to mourn you. Whatever you do, my dear ‘middle income’ compatriot, don’t ever lose your mind. Keep your mental faculties intact because life in Ghana on the other side – mental illness, what some people inappropriately refer to as mad – is ugly, is inhuman and is unconscionable. It’s nowhere near middle income status. It’s stinky Third-Worldish! Dr Akwesi Osei, the Chief Psychiatrist of Ghana, has been screaming hoarse about the urgency of resolving this matter but of course we don’t mind him.

When are we going to decapitate our low-cost Third World attitudes and behaviours that do not belong in a middle income country? When are we going to stop throwing ‘bola’ (garbage) away ‘by heart’, urinate by the roadside ‘by heart’ and cross roads ‘by heart’ – without apology?

Despite these funky issues, fortunately, Ghana has so much potential to succeed beyond measure to rise even higher than a mere middle income country. But will we continue to sabotage our own success?

You could liken this dance over income status with fishing. Oh, the bait caught the fish. Oh no, it’s a big worm, not a fish. Eh, it’s a baby fish oh! Should I drop the fish back into the river to give it time to grow larger? No, I might as well take it home now and eat the poor baby fish. Then what?