Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Too Close to Call: Parallels between Ghana 2008 and America 2000 Elections

History teaches lessons. Human beings are, for the most part, bad students of history because we don’t open up enough to learn the rich lessons. History repeats itself. In different characters, by different strokes, in different places and for different people, history lays red-carpets of lessons.

De javu: Ghana 2008 elections give a feeling of having been through this experience before. Come along – take a seat at the front row of history, not ancient history, but recent history in a country that is consider to be a democratic giant. Roll back: November and December 2000 in the USA; a country in suspense. Key actors: President George Bush, Vice President Al Gore, Katherine Harris (Republican Secretary of State of Florida), Jeb Bush (President Bush’s ‘little brother’, then Governor of Florida) and the US Supreme Court.

Reputable mass media organizations initially called the elections for Gore. They have done so in previous elections without being embarrassed. But this time around, they got it all wrong. The story of November 7 until December 12 of 2000, when the US Supreme Court stopped further vote counting, was nightmarish. America, like Ghana now, sat on tenterhooks.

Based on exit polls, the media projected Gore as winner of Florida ten minutes before the polls closed. As Election Night wore off, the actual/certified results showed a Bush win. Gore called Bush to privately concede defeat. Further vote counting showed insignificant differences – too close to call. Gore called Bush back to withdraw his earlier concession. The weeks that followed saw a ridiculous micro-level magnifying-glass scrutinizing, counting and recounting of ballots. Votes were labelled hanging or dimpled chads, setting the stage for mathematics of election results.

In apparent over-enthusiasm to be the first to project a winner, leading mass media institutions became the news, confusing the presidential candidates and the country. America, the model of democracy almost unravelled, shocking the world. That was risky journalism. When media prediction goes right, they win. But when it goes wrong, they lose – big time.

In a democracy, a president must be elected not selected. In the December 12 Supreme Court Decision, the recounting of ballots in Florida was declared unconstitutional. The recounting stopped and Katherine Harris, who was also co-chair of Bush’s campaign, certified Bush the winner of Florida and by extension, of America. That smelt of conflict of interest and of partisan interference in national elections. There was suspicion that the elder President Bush (father of out-going president Bush) influenced the Supreme Court to give the presidency to his son, making Bush a selected instead of an elected president.

With the tainted results and a none-majority vote, a section of the electorate felt deeply hurt believing that they had been cheated. So clearly, Bush did not have a mandate to rule, casting a gloomy shadow over his presidency. There is a school of thought that George Bush’s failure opened the floodgates for the possibility of an Obama presidency.

The nature of history is such that the 2000 incident has its close precedence in 1876 when a bitterly disputed election, marked by threats of violence, resulted in the losing Republican candidate Rutherford Hayes becoming president with 47.96% votes. In this world, stuff happens. Life is not always fair.

When all was resolved and Al Gore conceded defeat, he exited from the political scene, letting go of ego and placing the interest of country above self because it was obvious that even that matured and stable democracy was exhausted from the bitter electioneering contest. As he walked away, the nation sighed in relief, and on the wings of anger and a prayer, hoped that Bush will successfully see about America’s business.

And it appears that everyone forgot about Gore. He confessed later that he sank into depression, wondering what next to do with his life. It even showed on him. He let his head hair and beard over-grow, looking unkempt. He returned to the university to teach. Comedians used him as an object of their jokes. The former Vice President, the former ‘almost US President’ was lost in translation. End of story.

Not so fast. The universe gives second chances; different chances. There is a captain of everyone’s ship. When you want something so badly, there is a tendency to shut down to other dreams or the real purpose of life. But if you should go deep inside yourself, and listen to hear, the purpose, even in defeat, can show and a re-direction can occur. The universe heals. The universe gives. The universe restores.

Postscript: After a little while, Al Gore woke up from the traumatic sleep. He opened himself up to reflect. He remembered that what drove him into public service was his deep concern about environmental degradation and its inevitable effects on global warming.

As a Senator and later as Vice President, he had not succeeded in accomplishing much of his personal agenda. He had thought that becoming president will give him the needed clout to realise his environmental dreams. So he had a re-awakening: to use his privileged voice to return to his first love – the environment. He stepped up and out, cleaned out his over-grown facial and head hair. He went into his old took kit of notes and developed an extraordinarily brilliant PowerPoint presentation. He began speaking again on environmental issues, full-time. The rest is now history.

By lending his voice to the efforts of the knowledgeable but internationally voiceless in the scientific community, he set out on a world tour to speak to anyone who would listen. In February 2007, he won an Academy Award for his documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, the first time a documentary, a non-actor and a US vice president has won that award. In October of the same year, he won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts at bringing the world’s attention to the state of a world in peril.

Gore’s loss of the 2000 presidential elections permitted him to return to his first passion – the environment – and without the distractions of public office, the world won. Global warming and environmental issues have finally gained the deserved urgent attention.

As Bush ends his presidency with his popularity ratings at 27%, the lowest for any US president in recorded history, one should wonder – who is having the last laugh now? God has a sense of humour! Under the Bush presidency, America is entangled in three wars – Afghanistan, Iraq and the bizarre open-ended War on Terror. Besides, the economy is in shambles, with depressing spill-over into the global marketplace.

Footnotes: There are several parallels between the USA 2000 elections and Ghana’s current dilemma. Just as the state of Florida (a state more known for its large senior citizen population) determined who the president became, in Ghana, a new, little known and hard to pronounce-name constituency in the Brong Ahafo Region, Tain, is postured to elect our president.

With a predominantly farming population who grow mostly corn and yams, they are normally paid the least attention in national issues. But since December 30, they have become darlings of politicians who have descended on them, galloping on pretty horse-like shiny four-wheel drives, generating dust into their deprived atmosphere.

Like Florida, there have been allegations of fraud in the Ashanti and the Volta Regions. The police and military presence in the December elections have been over-powering. Suddenly, Ghana appears to be a police state. All our bragging about being an example for Africa seems to hang on police presence or else…… Fear reigns supreme and a cloud of doom is hanging over our country. We appear to be on the edge of something. Individuals are depressed; productivity must have fallen.

The mass media, led by Joy FM, called the presidential run-off vote for Mills, about 24 hours before the EC’s declaration. Although these were provisional results, party leadership and supporters desperate for a win reacted in ways that created tension. For days, Ghana has sat on tenterhooks. Now we wait for Tain to show the way!

The US has strong Republican and Democratic Party radio and TV networks. In Ghana, Radio Gold peddles NDC rumours, brimstone and fire while Oman FM spews out one-sided NPP propaganda venom. At times, some FM stations appear as if they are pushing this country to unravel. To say that this situation is ugly and destructive is an understatement.

Whoever becomes president therefore would have a weightless mandate. The win will only be mathematical, nothing to brag about. The new president will govern with half a population at baited breath, and a country almost at the verge of a constitutional crisis. How the new president will deal with the fall-out from these elections remains to be seen.

In 2000, America set an ugly record of not being such a shining example of democracy with the Supreme Court selection of President Bush. Ghana is setting its own record now. Ghana’s democracy is in an unchartered territory, going through a major test amid divisions and uncertainties in an apparent leadership vacuum. We wait, we watch and we pray that we pass this nerve-racking test with important lessons learned.

dorisdartey@yahoo.com

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